MachineEconomy.ai
LIVE

METHODOLOGY · v1.3

How the score is built.

Every parameter traces to a stated premise. Metric selection, normalization bounds, and aggregation rules are published in full and versioned when they change — so any reader can reproduce the number and compare like with like.

Current Score

33.7

Updated daily · v1.3 methodology

How the index is built

Four components, weighted equally

Each component scores on a 1–100 scale. The index is their geometric mean.

Payment

Physical

Legal

Macro

MEI 33.7
avg 36.8

4 metrics

6 metrics

LRRS

4 metrics

33.7

Geometric (MEI)

36.8

Simple average

3.0

Balance gap

The geometric mean sits at or below a simple average — the gap grows as the four components spread apart.

01 · What it measures

A composite index for the machine economy, on a 1–100 scale.

The Machine Economy Index (MEI) is a composite index — in the same family as a stock-market or economic-health index — that tracks the growth and vitality of the machine economy on a 1–100 scale. It is published on a fixed schedule, and every score is stored with a methodology version tag so readers can compare like with like.

The index measures four components. Three are infrastructure rails: Payment (how machines pay each other), Physical (the infrastructure machines use to do work), and Legal (the frameworks machines operate within). The fourth is Macro — realized demand, captured through enterprise AI-use rates and developer adoption. The three rails are the analytical framework; the index measures the rails plus the demand component.

Aggregation follows a three-level structure. The index is built from 14 scored metrics — 4 on the Payment rail, 6 on the Physical rail, and 4 in the Macro component. Individual metrics are combined arithmetically within each of those three components — category means first, then a component mean. Within each component, all included metrics are weighted equally: each metric contributes the same amount to its component score, and the component score is the simple average of all normalized metrics in that component. Equal within-component weighting is transparent and reproducible — no hidden per-metric weights — and avoids overfitting to current conditions. The four top-level components are then combined geometrically. The geometric step operates only across those four components; within a component, everything stays arithmetic.

The Legal rail carries no scored metrics; it is represented directly by the Legal Rail Readiness Score (LRRS), a separate composite with its own coverage model — explained in its own section.

02 · Why a geometric mean

A strong component can only partly make up for a weak one.

The four components are aggregated as a weighted geometric mean with an elasticity of substitution of 1 and a floor of 1 on the [1, 100] scale. That floor ensures no component can collapse the composite to zero; the geometric form does the rest of the work.

The geometric mean is chosen because the framework treats the rails as required layers, not substitutes for one another. A simple arithmetic average lets a strong component mathematically compensate for a near-absent one — a high Payment score can pull up a composite even when Legal readiness is close to the floor. The geometric mean limits that: a low component pulls the index down more than it would under an average. Because a machine economy needs all these layers present, the index uses a geometric mean, which — unlike a simple average — lets a strong area only partly compensate for a weak one, and the low floor keeps a weak rail visible.

For transparency, the geometric and arithmetic means are published side by side. Their difference is the balance gap — a diagnostic of how uneven the four components are. A larger gap means more imbalance between rails and demand. The component bars above show this live: the geometric headline, the arithmetic reference, and the gap between them.

Each of the four components receives equal weight — 0.25 — stated explicitly as a null hypothesis. Rank-sum weights are used for LRRS categories because a defensible importance ordering exists among legal instruments. Equal weights are used for MEI components because not even an ordering is defensible across Payment, Physical, Legal, and Macro — any ranking would be contestable, and geometric aggregation already enforces that no component is dispensable. That null-hypothesis argument stands on its own; it does not depend on the sensitivity analysis below.

ROBUSTNESS BAND · 33.7 [30–38]

Robustness band (§6.7). The headline is accompanied by a robustness band — not a measurement-error confidence interval, but the 5th–95th percentile range from 10,000 Monte Carlo draws over component weights (uniform on the simplex, truncated to [0.15, 0.35] per component) and normalization goalposts (log-uniform [0.5, 2] scale on each metric's bounds). LRRS has no goalposts — its underlying is already 0–100 coverage. At current values the fixed weight grid (equal weights, all 24 permutations of the 35/30/15/20 vector, plus ±10pp shifts) spans 29.8–38.2 (width 8.4 points); the Monte Carlo robustness band is [30, 38] (width 7.5 points). R2 (band width ≤10): passes. R3 (weakest rail unchanged in ≥95% of draws): legal in 100.0% of draws. R1 (direction of the 30-day change kept in ≥90% of draws): passes — 28.7 on 2026-10-07 → 33.7 on 2026-11-06, kept in 100.0% of draws. Live values: GET /api/v1/mei (score_low / score_high).

Directional claims. We say that the index, a component or the Legal score rose or fell only when that direction holds under the methodology's sensitivity analysis: in at least 90% of the 10,000 draws over weights and goalposts, or, for the Legal score, under all three of its category weightings (rank-sum, equal and rank-order-centroid). R1 is this test for the index over 30 days. The 7-day lines on /mei apply it to each component, and monthly reports apply it to each calendar month, from the previous month's last score. Where a direction does not hold, we show both values and make no directional claim. A single metric's value is a measurement and is shown as measured. This applies from 2026-10-30; reports published before then state component directions that were not tested this way.

Note added on 2026-10-30. Until 27 October 2026 this page said: "R1 requires 30 days of post-launch history; skipped until sufficient series exists." From 14 August that was not so: the series had 30 days of history, and R1 was first run on 27 October. Run since on the restated series of methodology 1.3, R1 fails on 19, 20 and 21 August, 16 and 18 September and 20 and 21 October, and cannot be evaluated on 14–18, 29 and 30 August. No page, report or briefing stated the index's direction on the days it fails.

Every major index is opinionated and declared by its creators, then trusted because it is transparent, consistent, and independent. The S&P 500 reflects S&P's decisions about which companies belong and how to weight them. Gartner invented the Magic Quadrant's axes. The Net Promoter Score's creator chose the 0–10 scale. The UN's Human Development Index weights life expectancy, education, and income equally. None of these were democratically decided. The MEI follows the same model and goes further: its methodology is not just published but derived — every parameter traces to a stated premise, and the one unavoidable judgment (equal weighting) is labeled as a null hypothesis rather than disguised as knowledge. When the methodology is refined, a new version is published with a full explanation, the history is recomputed on the new basis, and prior-basis values are retained.

03 · Normalization

Every metric mapped to 1–100, by published bounds.

Every metric is normalized to [1, 100] before it enters aggregation. Two regimes apply, depending on the shape of the underlying series — the bounds table below shows which each metric uses.

Log-space min-max is used for unbounded or wide-range metrics — volumes, counts, capacity — where values span orders of magnitude. The log transform makes normalization unit-invariant and appropriate for quantities that grow exponentially rather than linearly. Linear min-max is used for naturally bounded metrics such as ratios and percentages, where the raw value already lives on a finite scale.

All bounds are published and versioned. The served methodology is v1.3; each metric also carries its own boundsVersion in the table below — the amendment that last set that metric's normalization basis, which may leave min/max unchanged (e.g. ERC-8004 is at 1.2 for the dual-cap basis while most metrics remain at 1.1). This is the replicability commitment — anyone with the raw data can reproduce the normalization step.

The bounds are an editorial choice: tight bounds make a metric swing more. Ours are published, versioned, and varied in the sensitivity analysis.

The “launch N₀” column shows where each metric sits at launch on its 1–100 scale. These positions are a deliberate snapshot calibrated against verified anchor values — not an accident, and not an implication that the metric is “good” or “bad.” Some metrics launch low (nascent) and some high (mature) by design; the bounds are set to capture realistic future growth. Per-metric specifics — floor, ceiling, cadence, and source — are in the table.

Legal rail = LRRS (see LRRS section). No scored metrics on the Legal rail.

METRICREGIMEMIN–MAXLAUNCH N₀CADENCE
ERC-8004 agent registry activity (30d) (Payment)log min-max100 – 1M17daily
x402 active agent roles (30d) (Payment)log min-max1K – 10M57daily
x402 transactions (30d) (Payment)log min-max10K – 2B46daily
x402 on-chain USDC volume (30d) (Payment)log min-max$50K – $500M34daily
Akash compute spend (30d) (Physical)log min-max$1K – $200M43daily
Akash compute leases created (30d) (Physical)log min-max200 – 1M56daily
Filecoin raw storage power (Physical)log min-max100 – 32.77K49daily
Filecoin storage utilization (Physical)linear min-max0 – 140daily
Nvidia Data Center revenue (quarterly) (Physical)log min-max$4B – $300B68quarterly
OECD M2M/IoT subscriptions (Physical)log min-max100M – 4B48annual
US enterprise AI use (Census BTOS) (Macro)linear min-max0% – 80%25biweekly
EU enterprise AI use (Eurostat) (Macro)linear min-max0% – 80%25annual
MCP SDK downloads (30d) (Macro)log min-max1M – 5B59daily
Python agent-framework downloads (30d) (Macro)log min-max1M – 5B56daily

Provisional: published, but kept out of the index until its bounds are calibrated.

04 · The six inclusion criteria

Every metric passes all six before it enters the index.

Every metric must pass six tests before it becomes an MEI input. These criteria were applied strictly during the v1.0 redesign — only a fraction of the metrics considered during development qualified; the rest were excluded as named gaps or contextual signals rather than index inputs.

  1. 01

    Construct validity (the “freeze test”)

    The metric must genuinely measure machine-economy activity — if the machine economy froze, the metric would stop moving.

  2. 02

    Primary-source verifiability

    The value must come from a primary, verifiable source — on-chain data, a regulator, an official statistical agency, or a company's own filing — not an aggregator or estimate.

  3. 03

    Reversibility

    The metric can go down as well as up; it reflects real current activity, not a cumulative count that only grows.

  4. 04

    Single-category assignment

    Each metric maps to exactly one category, with concentration disclosed — no double-counting.

  5. 05

    Non-redundancy

    The metric adds information not already captured by another metric.

  6. 06

    Defined cadence

    The metric has a known update frequency — daily, biweekly, quarterly, or annual — shown in the bounds table.

05 · Legal Rail Readiness Score

A GDP-weighted coverage model, not a milestone tally.

Legal readiness

Legal Rail Readiness Score (LRRS)

How far the world's legal frameworks have caught up with the machine economy, weighted by each jurisdiction's share of world GDP.

16GDP-weighted coverage
23.5%
Sandbox·16.7%
52.5%
Free zone·16.7%
0.0%
Multilateral·6.7%
0.0%

Bars show the share of in-scope world GDP with a framework in force; the dashed line marks 89.1% — the combined GDP of all jurisdictions in scope (the practical ceiling).

Coverage is concentrated in sandbox frameworks — led by 智能网联汽车道路测试与示范应用管理规范(试行)(MIIT, MPS, MOT; 工信部联通装〔2021〕97号): road testing admitted by provincial and city authorities under it.

No jurisdiction in scope yet has an operational legal-identity, free-zone, or multilateral framework.

The Legal Rail Readiness Score (LRRS) measures how far the world's legal frameworks have caught up with the machine economy — GDP-weighted across jurisdictions and five legal categories. It is reported as an integer from 0 to 100; the underlying float feeds the MEI's Legal component directly.

The model uses five categories, each with a rank-sum weight: legal identity (3/10), stablecoin frameworks (3/10), regulatory sandboxes (1/6), machine-economy free zones (1/6), and multilateral instruments (1/15). These are not milestone points — the LRRS is explicitly a coverage model, not a tally.

  • Legal identity — whether a jurisdiction legally recognizes a machine-readable identity for autonomous agents: the capacity to be identified and to bear obligations within its legal system.weight 3/10
  • Stablecoin — frameworks that address fiat-referenced tokens (stablecoins) as such and govern either their issuance or services in them — offering, exchange, custody, transfer or payment. They are the settlement layer behind most machine payments. MiCA is the leading example in force; the US GENIUS Act counts from the day it takes effect, 18 January 2027.weight 3/10
  • Sandbox — government-run regimes that formally admit participants to test AI or machine-economy systems for a bounded period, with legal effect and a formal exit. A general financial or sectoral sandbox counts once its regulator has admitted a participant whose system under test uses AI.weight 1/6
  • Free zone — machine-economy free zones: special jurisdictions with bespoke legal regimes purpose-built for autonomous agents to hold assets, contract, and transact.weight 1/6
  • Multilateral — cross-border instruments (treaties, model laws, international standards) that coordinate machine-economy legal treatment across jurisdictions rather than within a single one.weight 1/15

Coverage is built from per-jurisdiction × per-category cells. Each cell has one of three values. 0 — no instrument of the jurisdiction's own is in force, including a law that has passed but whose operative provisions have not yet commenced. 0.5 — the jurisdiction's own instrument is in force, but operation is not yet evidenced. 1.0 — official operating evidence exists and is current: licences issued, participants admitted, live register entries. A sandbox stays at 1.0 while a participant's test is live or its newest operating record is less than 12 months old, then falls back to 0.5 while the regime stands. A jurisdiction's coverage in a category is its cell value; category coverage is the GDP-weighted sum across jurisdictions; the LRRS is the weighted sum across categories.

5 November 2026: how four sandbox and stablecoin rules are read (Rulings #21–#24). A testing regime's formal exit is a record its rules require at the ordinary end of a test: a report by or to the authority on the participant or its cohort, proof of the exit actions, or a decision on the test's outcome. A test differs from a type approval by its test purpose, its test term and that exit. A regime's level is the level of the instrument that sets its admission conditions, test term, legal effect and exit, so national rules administered by local authorities are national. A stablecoin provision counts only if it governs issuance or services on conditions specific to such tokens; one that only caps, delays, monitors, taxes or bans dealings does not. These rulings clarify existing rules: no stored status changed, and the methodology version is unchanged.

Some EU-level instruments constitute an operating regime in each member state — MiCA is the leading example — and the model propagates them to all 27 members. EU instruments that only oblige member states to create a regime confer no status and propagate nothing; each member scores its own national instrument, or zero. Where both apply, a stronger national instrument can override: cell status is the maximum across national and propagated EU instruments.

GDP weighting uses IMF World Economic Outlook data, frozen per methodology version (current vintage: WEO-2026-04). The weighting is reproducible and does not drift between releases. The LRRS is hand-curated. Every instrument already in the table is re-verified monthly, so a change to one enters the score within 35 days; a full search for new instruments runs at least every 95 days, so a new instrument enters within 95 days of taking effect; dated events already recorded apply on the day. Each finding's lag is published, and history is re-dated to the legal events at the next methodology version. Every search is recorded in the coverage log.

The LRRS is decomposition-first: the category bars above show where readiness exists before the single headline number. The dashed ceiling line marks the combined GDP of the surveyed jurisdictions — the 25 largest economies, all 27 EU members, and Singapore, the UAE, Hong Kong and the Marshall Islands, 89.1% of world GDP — the practical upper bound for coverage in the LRRS universe. Jurisdictions outside it are unverified and scored 0, so the score is understated by at most 10.9 points (realistically far less).

See the per-jurisdiction status map on the Index page.

LRRS coverage log

Every cell of the LRRS survey grid — 48 jurisdictions × 5 categories, 240 cells — is searched for instruments not yet in the table, across all of the cell's scope classes, at least every 95 days. Each search is recorded here with its date; only a search covering every scope class resets a cell's date, which is its staleness flag. A daily check fails when a cell's last complete search is more than 95 days old. Every instrument already in the table is re-verified at least every 35 days, separately.

As of 2026-11-06: 224 cells searched at full scope, 16 not yet searched at full scope. The first complete survey of every cell runs within 95 days of methodology 1.3's update date; until a cell has one, it is listed below as not yet searched. The log is also published as JSON at /api/v1/lrrs/coverage-log.

JurisdictionLegal identityStablecoinSandboxFree zoneMultilateral
ARE2026-11-042026-11-04not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
ARG2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
AUS2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
AUT2026-11-042026-11-03not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
BEL2026-11-042026-11-03not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
BGR2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
BRA2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
CAN2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
CHE2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
CHN2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
CYPnot yet2026-11-032026-11-04not yet2026-11-03
CZE2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
DEU2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
DNK2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
ESP2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
EST2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
FIN2026-11-042026-11-03not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
FRA2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
GBR2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
GRC2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
HKG2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
HRV2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
HUN2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
IDN2026-11-042026-11-04not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
IND2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
IRL2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
ITA2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
JPN2026-11-042026-11-04not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
KOR2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
LTU2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
LUX2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
LVA2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
MEX2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
MHL2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
MLT2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
NLD2026-11-042026-11-03not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
POL2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
PRT2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
ROUnot yet2026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
RUSnot yet2026-11-04not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
SAU2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
SGP2026-11-042026-11-04not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
SVK2026-11-042026-11-03not yet2026-11-042026-11-03
SVN2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
SWE2026-11-042026-11-032026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
TUR2026-11-04not yet2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
TWN2026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-042026-11-03
USA2026-11-042026-11-04not yet2026-11-042026-11-03

06 · Named gaps

What the index can't yet measure — named, not faked.

Some dimensions of the machine economy do not yet have a metric that passes all six inclusion criteria — or cross a disclosed construct boundary the current proxy cannot reach. Rather than filling those slots with weak proxies, the MEI and LRRS name them explicitly in one register. Each entry states what Tier-1 source would close it.

MEI — Payment Rail

  • PAYMENTClosed-rail machine payments — verifiable transaction-level data from private settlement rails (cloud billing, API metering). None exists in public infrastructure today.
  • PAYMENTNon-USDC x402 modalities — a recurring primary-source series for x402 V2 rails beyond on-chain USDC (USDm, ACH, card).
  • PAYMENTQuality-adjusted x402 volume — a free, recurring, reproducible wash-filter methodology. Gross on-chain USDC is the v1.0 input by design.
  • PAYMENTLightning / L402 machine payments — L402 (Bitcoin Lightning) is a real, active machine-payment protocol. We cannot measure it: Lightning payments settle off-chain by design, so no public, verifiable volume series exists. This is a construct boundary, not an omission. It closes if a Tier-1 verifiable series ever emerges.
  • PAYMENTSettlement liquidity — machine-payments-specific stablecoin float, distinct from total stablecoin supply (fails the freeze test).

MEI — Physical and Macro

  • PHYSICALCaptive silicon — hyperscaler-designed accelerators form real AI compute capacity our merchant-market proxy cannot see. Closes with a vendor-neutral, AI-specific SEC-grade series (logged candidate: TSMC HPC-platform revenue).

These are real parts of the machine economy the indices do not yet measure. Naming them is a credibility choice: the platform states what it cannot yet quantify rather than substituting unverified numbers.

The LRRS category bars in the LRRS section reflect live coverage — categories at zero indicate no jurisdiction in scope yet has an operational framework for that category.

07 · Scope & disclosures

Known risks disclosed, not hidden behind adjustments.

  • On-chain-only Payment Rail

    The Payment Rail measures publicly verifiable on-chain machine-commerce activity — for example on-chain USDC x402 volume. Off-chain or non-public machine payments (including Lightning / L402) are not captured. This is a deliberate scope choice: verifiable on-chain data over unverifiable off-chain estimates.

  • x402 gross on-chain volume and wash/bot disclosure

    The x402 volume metric uses gross on-chain USDC volume. Some of this may include wash trading or bot activity. The MEI discloses this as a concentration and quality risk rather than applying an opaque “quality adjustment” — because gross on-chain volume is primary-source verifiable and reproducible, whereas any adjustment factor would be an unverifiable judgment. Transparency about a known risk over an opaque correction.

  • x402 agent roles: how the count is built

    The agent-participation metric adds x402scan's unique buyers and unique sellers over 30 days. Each is counted per facilitator and per chain, so one address active through two facilitators counts twice, and an address that both pays and is paid counts on each side. One payer can create seller roles at about a cent each: on 23–24 September 2026 one address paid one cent to each of 24,383 new addresses. An address is not an agent: one operator can control many addresses. Ruling #19 replaces this metric with a count of distinct paying addresses in a later methodology version.

  • One indexer, and how staleness is handled

    All x402 metrics come from one indexer, x402scan, through its 30-day views. A value counts as current only if the source's own timestamp for its window is at most 36 hours old when we fetch it; otherwise nothing is stored, and the last value is carried forward and marked stale. x402scan's 30-day view stopped refreshing on 9–19 September 2026 and again from 28 September until no later than 3 October 2026; the values stored on those dates repeated the last fresh values.

  • Payment-rail diagnostics and triggers

    Every day we read x402scan's 30-day views and publish: the raw transaction count and the count with each paying address credited at most 10,000 settlements, their ratio and the number of payers above that cap; the largest payer's and the top five payers' shares of transactions and of volume; raw and scored dollars per transaction against the $0.25–$5.00 band; distinct recipients and the payers with more than 1,000 of them; the five payees with the most distinct payers, with their counts; the roles sum; and each view's timestamp. None of this enters the score.

    Four triggers read these daily figures, and the fifth, X5, is read at each monthly sweep. Each opens a review and changes no value.

    • X1 One payer holds at least half of 30-day volume on 14 consecutive days.
    • X2 The rolling 180-day median of the raw count over the capped count is at least 2.0: a monitored state, re-reviewed each year, left when the median stays below 1.5 for 180 days.
    • X3 The scored dollars per transaction lie outside $0.25–$5.00 on 14 consecutive days.
    • X4 x402scan's 30-day view is stale or can't be read on 14 consecutive days.
    • X5 Read at each monthly sweep: paying addresses whose only payee is one of the payees with at least 1,000 such addresses are more than half of all paying addresses, at three sweeps in a row.

    Latest states, from the reading of 2026-11-06:

    • X1 not fired (0 of 14 consecutive days with one payer at half of volume or more); the largest payer holds 49.1%.
    • X2 not yet evaluable (1 of 180 days); median of the raw ÷ capped count so far 1.44.
    • X3 not fired (0 of 14 consecutive days with scored $/tx outside $0.25–$5.00); scored $0.39/tx.
    • X4 not fired (0 of 14 consecutive days with x402scan's 30-day view stale or unreadable).
    • X5 no reading yet: the first comes with a monthly sweep.

    The figures, the states and 180 days of history: /api/v1/diagnostics.

  • Payment-rail concentration at composite level

    At launch the Payment Rail is substantially a two-protocol rail at the MEI composite level: x402 metrics account for roughly 16.7% of the headline composite via a single protocol source; ERC-8004 registry activity accounts for another ~8.3%. Together they dominate the 25%-weight Payment component.

  • OECD-scoped connectivity

    Machine connectivity is measured via OECD M2M subscription data, which covers OECD member countries — not global. The series is annual with an 18–30 month publication lag (~2-year phase lag: a 2026 IoT inflection registers around 2028). As a stock (point-in-time subscription count), a machine-economy freeze would plateau the metric rather than drop it — the same stock-behaviour caveat applies to Filecoin raw byte power.

  • Nvidia Class-M exception

    The Physical Rail's compute-capacity metric uses Nvidia's SEC-reported Data Center segment revenue (not consolidated company revenue — gaming and other segments are excluded by construction) as a proxy for merchant-market AI compute capacity formation, not total AI compute capacity. Captive hyperscaler silicon (TPU-, Trainium-, MTIA-class) forms real capacity that this merchant-market proxy cannot see. A Class-M exception to the usual primary-source-per-metric rule — the best available verifiable proxy today. Quantified wrong-direction sensitivity: if true AI compute capacity rises 30% while Nvidia's merchant share slides 90%→65%, Nvidia revenue falls ~6% and the normalized score drops ~1.5 points (68.0→66.5 on published bounds) even as true capacity rises — a disclosed construct boundary, guarded by a pre-committed 60% share construct-review trigger (monthly sweep). It launches at a relatively high position (mature) and an early bounds rebase is anticipated by design as the metric matures.

  • GDP vintage

    LRRS GDP weights use a frozen IMF WEO vintage, tagged per methodology version, so the weighting is reproducible and does not drift between versions.

  • LRRS scope

    The LRRS universe is 48 jurisdictions — the 25 largest economies, all 27 EU members, and Singapore, the UAE, Hong Kong and the Marshall Islands — covering 89.1% of world GDP on the frozen IMF vintage, not every country. Every one of them is searched in every category at least every 95 days. Jurisdictions outside the list are unverified and scored 0, which understates the LRRS by at most 10.9 points (realistically far less). The coverage bars' ceiling line reflects this in-scope GDP total.

08 · Limitations & versioning

Refined openly; old scores never silently re-baselined.

  • Launch positions are designed. The index launches with metrics at calibrated positions — some nascent and low, some mature and high — by design. These are a deliberate snapshot, not a judgment that a metric is good or bad.

  • Nominal-bounds drift (USD log metrics). Three metrics use log-space normalization on nominal USD bounds: Nvidia Data Center segment revenue, x402 on-chain USDC volume, and Akash compute spend. Bounds are nominal by design; rebases absorb structural shifts. They do not adjust for inflation — at ~3% annual inflation, normalized scores drift upward from price level alone even if real activity is flat: approximately +0.68 index points per year on Nvidia, +0.32 on x402 volume, and +0.24 on Akash spend (quantities held constant).

  • Cadence and staleness mix. Metrics update at different cadences, from daily to annual. Between updates, the most recent verified value carries forward. Slower-cadence metrics — for example quarterly or annual series — are inherently less fresh; that mix is disclosed rather than hidden. The LRRS is different: it is hand-curated, not fetched. Every instrument already in the table is re-verified monthly, so a change to one enters the score within 35 days; a full search for new instruments runs at least every 95 days, so a new instrument enters within 95 days of taking effect; dated events already recorded apply on the day. Each finding's lag is published, and history is re-dated to the legal events at the next methodology version.

  • Robustness band. The headline is reported as a point estimate plus a robustness band (e.g. MEI 33.7 [30–38] on 2026-11-06) — the 5th–95th percentile range from the §6.7 sensitivity analysis over weights and normalization goalposts. This is not measurement uncertainty; it states how much the score moves under defensible alternative methodological choices. Values are stored as score_low / score_high on each daily MEI API response and shown on the Index page.

  • Versioning policy. The methodology is version-tagged. When it is refined, a new version is published with a full explanation, and the series is recomputed on the new basis so it stays comparable through time. Prior-basis values are retained. The index is never silently changed. See the version notes.

Current methodology v1.3 · full changelog at /methodology/versions